Here's Why BTC is NOT What You Think It Is

Editor’s Correction: There was a typo that respectively referenced the years 2017/2018 as 2007 and 2008 in the below article that has since been corrected.

The question I hear endlessly repeated in the BTC community is the following: Why haven’t governments been able to stop the existence of BTC? If BTC were an intelligence agency psyop and I worked for the CIA, this is the exact question I would want asked by the BTC community all over the world. Why? I’ll answer that question in a moment, but first let’s lay the groundwork to answer that question.

Ninety-nine%+ of BTC technical charting analysts have never made more than one significant accurate prediction about a BTC price movement within a six month time frame that has come true (if we qualify significant as more than a 45% drop in price and more than a 90% gain in price and accurate as being within a few thousand dollars of the exact top and bottom prices). That is a fact. I have made five such predictions that fit these qualifications. Anyone can present themselves as a technical charting expert today because there is literally software one can purchase for a few hundred dollars or less you that will automatically draw all lines, curves, Fibonacci retracement levels on an asset price chart and inform the user how these technical charting patterns should be interpreted. Thus, one can easily transform from a Political Science or English literature major today into a technical charting YouTuber “expert” tomorrow.  

But ask yourself, because surely if you invest in BTC, you have followed one or more of these analysts in the past, how many of them have the documented track record I do of accuracy on repeated significant BTC price movements (as defined above) since 2017? And the answer to this question should be terrifying to most because I likely do not even spend 2% of the time analyzing BTC prices as do these full time BTC technical chart analysts. How many of them called the BTC exact top price of $20,000 in 2017, accurately predicted a 50% price crash to $10,000 and then another 50% crash to $5k in 201Edi8 as I did? How many called a massive upswing in price at the end of 2020 as I did and publicly posted this prediction on YouTube as I did? How many then in 2021, correctly called BTC’s interim price top at $58k after rising from $20k, later that year accurately called BTC’s interim price low at $29k, and then finally called BTC’s second interim price high at $66k in November 2021? (all these price predictions are still documented on my patreon platform).

I realize that my interim price tops in 2021 were a few thousand dollars off the interim highs but who called every high and every low in 2021 correctly as I did, in addition to the exact price top in 2017, a 75% price decline  in 2018 that was only off by $2,000 ($5,000 versus the true low of $3,000)? And who did this without any reliance on technical charting but reliance simply on metrics based off banker manipulation of BTC prices? And by the way I have also predicted very accurate monthly price ranges for BTC for months on end from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024. These facts automatically provide massive credibility to one of my exposed lies of famous BTC advocates like Michael Saylor, a person that has repeatedly falsely claimed that BTC’s price is non-manipulable. If BTC’s price cannot be manipulated, then the probability of all the above BTC price predictions I provided from 2017 to 2021, and many other monthly predictions last year and this year that also were on point, should have been mere guesswork and had less than 0.000000001% probability of coming true. But yet they all came true. And if indeed BTC’s price is manipulable, even though Saylor is still up quite considerably on his BTC purchases, with his average purchase price per BTC roughly $35k as of May 2024, this realization should terrify him given its implications instead of leading to the smugness he continually expresses in his self-lauding.

Furthermore, I issued all the above accurate predictions with minimal time spent on analysis as I categorize the asset of BTC as a pure speculation and not a core asset. Consequently, because I have no interest in being a gambler, but only an investor, despite the fact that BTC has paid off some extremely handsome payoffs to its early adopters, I have never invested in BTC. That said, I have always still congratulated those that have made millions from betting on BTC. It’s just not for me.

But I stand by my firm claim that all those currently invested in it, if they are engaging in intelligent investment strategies, should never treat it as a core asset but as a speculative one.  

Furthermore, it is my firm belief that the chance to earn a quick retirement nest egg that existed when BTC was less than $5k are long gone. Those that earned a 6X increase, from investing in BTC when its price was $10k to its current price of roughly $60k at the current time, is a yield in a speculative asset that frankly is nothing to write home about. Those that subscribe to my patreon know that I’ve yielded a 10X return on a speculative stock pick in the past, will likely do so in the future, and that I’ve accomplished a 6X yield in my options trading account already in just the first five months of this year.

However, even so, I would never sell an options trading course with my “proprietary strategies of how to earn a 6X yield in just five months!” because I understand the ins and outs of options trading well enough to know that pitching such returns as replicable to others is completely sheisty, dishonorable, and false. The other day, I encountered a YouTube of some girl pitching an options trading course that will turn $1 into $7,900 (it was either $7,600 or $7,900), implying a 7,900 multiple. That is so absurd that I can only believe that the dumbest of the dumb would fall for such a pitch. If she really could help you turn a $1 investment into $7,900, then why would she not invest $10,000 of her own money into the same options trades and turn $10,000 into $79M. Surely doing so is a far easier method to earn $79M than convincing thousands of people to buy her options trading course.

That said, I’m going to tell you, in the above podcast, a critical thing about BTC that none of these other BTC “expert” analysts will ever tell you.