The Shiny Facade of BTC

Is it Real or Do Other Considerations Lurk Beneath the Surface that Merit Strong Consideration?

Shiny Bitcoin

As is the case with Dubai, now that BTC’s shine has been restored this year after a lackluster year-and-a-half, I believe that the sparkly perception of BTC today amongst the vast majority of HODLers has once again hidden the true risks that continue to lurk beneath the surface. Because of BTC’s recent price recovery, more than ever, the narrative that BTC is the saviour of the global monetary system that will free all of its HODLers from the vice like grip of Central Bankers has persisted, despite this narrative residing at the opposite end of reality. Part of this perception is due to the poor education system and the misconceptions of what defines sound money that persist not just among BTC HODLers but also among the general population.

I provided an update on immediate term BTC price movements on my Patreon platform a couple of months ago and I last stated on this platform that BTC prices would remain capped at $31,000 for the entire month of August. Back then, I stated that if BTC prices broke above $31,800, then I would offer more commentary here. Well, in late October, BTC moved above $32,000 and recently rose to nearly $38,000, so allow me to offer some further commentary. Whenever I provide any predictions about BTC price behavior, my predictions are only good for about a month, or two at most, for very good reasons as I’ll explain below.  

Quite frankly, if one looks at the proper metrics to make such predictions, these metrics limit one’s prediction to about a maximum time frame of no more than one to two months, which explains why time-dated predictions three months, six months or a year out have a 0% success rate in the history of asset price predictions. This is the very reason I’ve also always ridiculed the gold to $10,000 predictions that are issued with a timeline of within a year or two years. I’m not saying gold prices can’t get there but certainly 100% of the time such predictions make headlines, there is nothing to support such wild predictions.