The Parallels of What Lurks Beneath the Shiny Façade of Both Bitcoin and the Fastest Growing Playground for the Uber Rich Today, Dubai

I have often felt the need to really warn people of the most likely scenario that, in my opinion, will unfold with Bitcoin over the next five years because of the knowledge that a good handful of my subscribers are heavily invested in Bitcoin as well as my favorite foundational investments for the coming financial apocalypse – physical gold and physical silver. Given that I’ve already roundly debunked some of the most widely believed narratives about Bitcoin that lead to HODLers’ belief that it is still going to the moon in price (a narrative of which I’m still highly sceptical due to my research that vastly differs from the analysts that continue to pump its price), I’m not going to be redundant in repeating any of the conclusions of my already performed research in those arenas. Should you wish to read one of those articles, you may do so with this following article: Here I told subscribers to sell, not HODL BTC in the $60,000 to $66,000 range at the end of 2021, but most HODLers dismissed my warning and responded that since every BTC analyst “worth their weight in salt” had predicted BTC would double again in price by the end of the year, they would dismiss my “uneducated” guidance while I decided to “stay poor”.  

Again, this doesn’t pertain to everyone in the community, as some thanked me for this guidance, but I should clarify that those that thanked me for that article to sell BTC were not HODLers but those that had received guidance to buy at $66,000 and chose not to buy, due to my analysis. So no one mistakes my warnings to BTC HODLers to always manage price risk and to never HODL as equivalent to “hating” on BTC as an investment asset, I’ve acknowledged plenty of times the great riches achieved from being an early adopter of BTC, and further recorded  plenty of podcasts and written articles in which I stated that the BTC price was going to soar. In fact prior to my “sell all BTC you own” article above when BTC was nearing $70,000, I granted a buy at BTC at $29,000 earlier that year at a point in mid-2021 that I identified as offering an optimal risk-reward setup for BTC prices. And prior to the buy guidance I issued then, you can click this link to watch a YouTube video I published at the end of 2020 in which I correctly predicted that BTC prices would soar in 2021. I simply have never invested in BTC because since the first mint of BTC, I’ve resided in Asia the vast majority of those years and I’ve chosen restful sleep over a willingness to wake up in the middle of the night to deal with massive price volatility that has afflicted BTC ever since its creation. As I’ve only believed that BTC should be traded and never HODLed since day one, this belief conflicted with my choice to not have to awaken at all hours of the night.

However, since I informed all subscribers here in my “About” page that my aim, as an analyst, is to always bring you the non-mainstream perspective that will never be presented in the MSM, I see it as my duty to always bring to you facts that will include many things that you may not want to hear. And this includes risks that most people invested in an asset would rather not learn about for some very odd reason. Thus, despite the above times I issued buy guidance for BTC that preceded price doubles on multiple occasions, because I discuss downside risk quite often, I have gained a reputation as a “BTC hater” simply because no other BTC analyst out there with large followings will ever tell you the truth about BTC. Since many BTC analysts hold positions in BTC, discussing truth about BTC risk will be damaging to their own positions. I have time after time, identified massive red flags regarding undiscussed risks about BTC that has led me to conclude that anyone invested in BTC needs to view BTC not as a main staple of their portfolio, but as a 100% speculative investment. And with speculative investments, should one lose 100% of one’s position, one should still be 100% fine regarding one’s financial health.

For example, I have discussed speculative stocks on my Patreon platform that I describe in the same manner. With such assets, I warn my Patrons not to invest more than ½ of the amount they invest in other stocks and assets I discuss. Since I only discuss these speculative stocks at the two highest membership levels at which I also discuss about 25 other asset positions, my warning to cut holdings in these speculations, should one choose to buy them, translates into very little risk. For example, if an investor allocated an equal allocation to my other  twenty-five discussed positions, then each asset in that person’s portfolio would hold slightly less than a 4% weighting if one also chose to also buy some speculative assets as well. Cutting that approximate 4% weighting in half would mean a less than 2% weighting for any speculative asset I discuss. Thus, even if that speculative stock lost 50%, this would only result in less than a 1% loss of one’s overall portfolio’ value, a loss that will never devastate one’s portfolio value. In fact, the only other person to whom I’ve spoken that holds my same view about BTC, well known in the financial world, is Gerald Celente, a man I interviewed on this platform. Unsurprisingly, Celente is also an analyst that never tells people what they want to hear but truly what he believes, and thus, doesn’t fear losing subscribers in providing the much more valuable service of telling his clients only his truthful opinion.

There are those that state using my above rule will then never yield any massive profits if such an asset should increase 2,000%. And indeed, this is a solid point. But my point is to always manage risk. If one believes an asset is speculative then one should understand that the chance that asset will increase by even 1000% is less than 1%, and thus one should invest accordingly and not put 50% of your portfolio in this asset. However, if one does not agree with either my or Mr. Celente’s assessment of BTC as a “speculative” asset, then perhaps I will have a much more difficult time in convincing one of the wisdom of this approach. Hopefully, the rest of this article will convince many that may be holding BTC at the current time why this asset is a speculative one.

Because I’ve also spent a lot of time in these podcasts here, here, here, here and here, in which I completely destroy nine of the most repeated narratives about BTC that are widely believed but completely false, I am neither going to rehash any material I’ve already discussed in those five podcasts that are an essential listen to any person currently HODLing BTC (however, I would mark all of those above podcasts as essential listening to comprehend my speculative categorization for BTC). And for those that still mistake truth and facts for “hate”, I additionally published a series of similar articles on this platform about all the myths spread about gold, an asset I endorse and do not hate, as many falsehoods about gold, easy to disprove, are also incredulously widely believed in the gold community as well. I’ve already described that not believing in an asset is a very different belief than an asset cannot be highly profitable.

The listed podcasts above explain why I personally don’t endorse investing in BTC, but since BTC has made millionaires of plenty of investors, obviously people have earned substantial profits by investing in it. Despite this, I firmly believe that the days of investing $50,000 into BTC to become a multi-millionaire have long since passed. Think about this, even if BTC increases to $100,000, a price level of which I’m highly sceptical, this only marks a 2.67X multiple at current prices. My patrons have already earned such multiples on a group of assets in the past 2-1/2 years with far less risk than a BTC investment, so even a ramp up of BTC prices to $100,000 is not worth the risk in my humble opinion. I believe there are assets that offer this same upside with far less risk. In 2008, investors made substantial profits investing in collateralized debt obligations that consisted of pooled subprime mortgages until that market fell apart and collapsed. Thus, even if profits are still being reaped from any asset, underlying risks must always be constantly assessed.

The vital part missing in the BTC community, in my opinion, is a loud dissenting voice to all current narratives to challenge HODLers to always consistently re-examine their premise that BTC prices are going to $300,000, then $500,000, and then to $1,000,000 in the next five to ten years. In a community in which consensus exists among nearly all members, dissenting voices are always the most valuable, even if rejected or proven incorrect, if only for challenging its members to consider alternate point of views that otherwise will never be considered. For example, these were the widely accepted beliefs five years ago and BTC is still still only $37,500 as I write this. Yet, I haven’t seen one BTC analyst that made such predictions of massive price appreciation five years ago write an article explaining why their $300,000 or even $100,000 price prediction failed. And I’ve never heard a BTC advocate demand explanations from the analysts that issued these failed predictions. One should never underestimate the critical importance of completing this exercise, for without introspection into why such predictions failed, there literally is no improvement in the understanding of the real mechanisms that set BTC prices.

The Same Script

Furthermore, I believe the BTC community should find it disconcerting that every BTC HODLer repeats the same script, as if it were handed to him or her from Sinclair broadcasting management to be recited across the world by every BTC HODLer. That script goes as follows:

(1)   The next BTC halving, arriving by April 2024, is price bullish (I’ve already explained why this event is irrelevant in my nine debunked BTC narratives above);

(2)   $5.3 trillion in idle cash sits on the sidelines, and if only 1% of this sidelined cash flows into BTC, then its market cap will explode 7.3% higher than current levels today (Does anyone recall the narrative that BTC’s market cap would exceed gold in a few months that existed many years ago? Today, BTC’s market cap is still only $730.5B with gold’s underestimated market cap at $12-13 trillion. Gold’s market cap is highly underestimated because it is well understood in the gold community that China, and likely Russia as well, have highly underreported their true gold holdings, and the global market gold cap does not consider this fact or the well-above $2,000 an ounce benchmark gold price in China at the current time for China’s gold holdings. The use of much lower NY/London gold prices to calculate the market cap of China’s gold holdings, already highly underestimated by the West, of course, makes zero logical sense. Thus, even if BTC’s market cap exceeded $13 trillion, it realistically still would have to grow considerably higher to truly surpass gold’s global market cap.)

(3)   All the big boys in the global financial market, including Blackrock, Wisdom Tree Funds, Invesco, Galaxy Digital, and Valkyrie Funds have applied to operate spot-BTC ETFs. When these spot ETFs are eventually approved, this will drive BTC prices sky high (I already explained here, why, even if this does materialize, the approval of spot-BTC ETFs will only produce a temporary bump higher in price before prices come tumbling down again in the future).

And these are just a few of the narratives that I hear repeated by almost every single BTC HODLer that insists prices are still going to the moon, but that this moonshot had just been delayed by a few years. So let’s proceed to discuss the reasons the consistency of these narratives should be concerning to every BTC HODLer and needs to be considered in any accurate assessment regarding the risk of holding BTC as a large portion of one’s portfolio moving forward.