by John Kim, skwealthacademy substack
Here is my mea culpa for my wrong BTC price forecast for February, because during that month, I expected it to remain range bound in price and not soar higher. Indeed, I was wrong, because BTC did not remain range bound and it broke higher above my stated price range, though I was not wrong until the very last day of February. I stated last month, “my best opinion is that BTC will now remain range bound between $50k and $55k for the remainder of this month [February].” My February BTC prediction was on point until the very last day of the month, during which BTC prices spiked to $63,900, so had this year not been a leap year, and February only had 28 days as usual, my prediction still would have essentially been on point, plus or minus a couple thousand dollars.
Thus, because the last BTC price prediction I provided was only for the month of February, my offered mea culpa is a very mild one. Yes, I realize that earlier I stated a belief that BTC prices would remain range bound into the halving, but in a dynamic and volatile price environment, quite obviously the most relevant predictions I publish are always the ones published most recently, that supersede ones published in the past. And since I have yet to offer any price predictions for March, it is time to bring my February BTC price prediction up-to-date.
In the past, I also have stated predictions that paper gold and silver prices would remain range bound, but once metrics changed, I’ve consequently offered changes on my outlook that superseded prior provided price outlooks. For example, at a time when gold/silver prices were moderating up and down within a narrow price range, I stated that synthetic gold and silver prices were going to break down from their range bound prices in the week prior to Chinese New Years. Thus, I advocated at the time, on my patron platform, divesting of any price sensitive long positions in gold/silver derivatives prior to the week long Chinese New Years holiday, after which I advocated twice entering long positions in gold/silver derivatives upon the price dump (both of which yielded 100%+ positive returns last month and this month by the way).
But before I provide an update to my February BTC price outlook, let me break down some fundamentally wrong analysis recently provided by BTC analysts (at the time this article is being published, the BTC price is $72k).