In the first article I published this year titled “The Big Short of 2024”, I wrote the following:
“In my first post of 2024, I will discuss why I think this big short opportunity will appear in two phases and the likely timing of how this opportunity will unfold that will be vital to the profitability of this opportunity.”
In that paid subscriber only post, I stated in the accompanying published podcast, that I believed big profits could be made to open the year by purchasing put options on small US regional banks with large exposure to commercial real estate assets and debt, though the mainstream media disagreed and largely parroted the Ruling Class line that this was not going to be a problem and that people, like myself, were blowing this problem out of proportion with the risk. There were literally at least a dozen bank stocks, per the parameters I specifically discussed, that could have been shorted via put options strategies for triple digit gains.
I strongly disagreed with the prevailing sentiment that this would not be a problem. Since then, as a handful of subscribers here wrote me thereafter, large profits were yielded from the strategies I discussed in the above linked podcast. One could have conducted a basic internet search with the parameters I discussed for US regional banks that would have made good shorts to begin the year and easily found ten or more banks to target, all of which crashed tremendously in price since my podcast.
Here are some of the price charts for such banks I described in the above link below, with their share prices cratering by more than 20% to 30% since I wrote the above article. Consequently, dependent upon the parameters of entered put options, they all would have returned roughly triple digit yields as their option deltas were still really favorable from a risk/reward stance at the time I posted the above article due to the fact that most traders, as they do, only analyze momentum and ignored the risk that I discussed to open this year in a post that could not have been any more clearly titled. And as you can see in the below charts, the momentum for the bulk of these bank stocks at the time I suggested these trading strategies was still upward and positive. In fact, you can keep the names of these banks in your memory bank moving forward because I don’t believe the downward share price slide in any of these banks is over, despite the large falls they’ve already suffered.